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Ancient Wisdom

The makers of the Dresden Codex observed, assessed, and worked out what would happen next, early enough to act on it.

The Dresden Codex was written in North America centuries before the United States existed. It has been held in Dresden, Germany, since 1739, which is where its name comes from. It survived the American and British bombing of the city in February 1945, damaged by water in a flooded basement.

Most of its pages look into the future. Its tables follow Venus through a 584-day cycle across 104 years and predict eclipses of the sun and moon, and its almanacs marked which days favored planting, trade or war.

Some 700 years later, we use the same technique for the United States and her allies. Each of those four steps has a counterpart in our work.

  1. 01 · Observed

  2. 02 · Assessed

  3. 03 · What would happen next

  4. 04 · Early enough to act

    Decision superiority

Observed: Silent Dagger — find, fix, AFDP 3-60. Assessed: Iron Canopy — the running estimate, ADP 5-0. What would happen next: Prometheus — all valid threat COAs, ATP 2-01.3. Early enough to act: Decision superiority — faster than an opponent can react, JV 2020.

01 · Observed

They put Venus’s cycle at 584 days. Measured today, it is 583.92.

The codex · Venus table, pages 24 and 46–50

One cycle, to scale · 584 days

236

Morning star

90

Unseen

250

Evening star

8

Unseen

Our work · Silent Dagger

FIND → FIX · SILENT DAGGERCOLLECTION 0412Z0102030405060708099 DETECTED · 1 IDENTIFIEDTARGET 07 IDENTIFIED 0431ZNO ASSESSMENTeight still in findDYNAMIC TARGETINGFINDFIXTRACKTARGETENGAGEASSESS07fix = positive ID + position— AFDP 3-600412Z0431Z19 minutes,find to fix

02 · Assessed

They reset their tables before the error built up.

The codex · Eclipse and Venus tables

One table · 405 lunar months

223

405

Next table, from month 358

358

Reset at month 358 or 223, not at the end

Our work · Iron Canopy

RUNNING ESTIMATE · IRON CANOPYONE COA ASSESSEDCOA AB, C and D not assessedFOUR COAS CONTINUOUSLY ASSESSED← ADP 5-00355Z · 4 DEVELOPED0415ZCOA ACOA BCOA CCOA DBRANCH · REVISED 0418Zall four assessed,as of 0418Z

03 · What would happen next

They listed the days an eclipse might occur, not one date.

The codex · Eclipse table, pages 51–58

One of 69 columns · schematic

Glyph caption

Running total · in red

Interval · 148, 177 or 178 days

Three dates in the 260-day count

Our work · Prometheus

ENEMY COURSES OF ACTION · PROMETHEUSTWO COAS DEVELOPEDMOST LIKELY · MOST DANGEROUSall valid threat COAs— ATP 2-01.3EVENT MATRIXECOA AECOA BECOA CECOA DMOST LIKELYMOST DANGEROUSNAI 1NAI 2NAI 3LIKELIHOODICD 203ALMOSTNO CHANCEALMOSTCERTAINADBCC: very unlikely,most dangerous

04 · Early enough to act

Their tables ran decades ahead.

The codex · How far the tables ran, to scale

Venus table

104 years

One eclipse table

32¾ years

Eclipse tables, reset in turn

About 700 years

Our work · The vision

Decision superiority
at the tactical edge.

Dresden Codex builds products to augment decision making, tighten the kill chain, and enable the warfighter.

Decision superiority: better decisions arrived at and implemented faster than an opponent can react (Joint Vision 2020).

Protecting the United States and her allies